Alumni Ventures
October coverage: 33%. November coverage: 50%. December coverage: 40%. Rolling coverage: 41%. Lead time: 84 days. Signalled deals: 18. Round capital: $403.8m. Company capital: $655.1m.
Investment signal backtesting
A 2023 venture-signal backtest showing how structured signals created earlier review windows across investment announcements and funding stages. Fund coverage is shown for Q4 2023, covering October, November and December.
Backtesting summary
265 signalled venture deals in 2023
Historical 2023 backtest count across the reviewed venture dataset.
$9.7bn 2023 total round investment
Aggregate round investment associated with signalled companies in the backtest.
$32.9bn 2023 total company capital
Aggregate capital raised by companies associated with the signalled rounds.
133 days 2023 average lead time
Average period between the initial signal date and the public investment announcement.
Fund comparison workbench
Sequoia Capital
October coverage: 25%. November coverage: 33%. December coverage: 75%. Rolling coverage: 44%. Lead time: 222 days. Signalled deals: 13. Round capital: $843.8m. Company capital: $1.78bn.
Accel
October coverage: 43%. November coverage: 0%. December coverage: 29%. Rolling coverage: 23%. Lead time: 203 days. Signalled deals: 11. Round capital: $524.4m. Company capital: $1.07bn.
Andreessen Horowitz
October coverage: 18%. November coverage: 20%. December coverage: 20%. Rolling coverage: 19%. Lead time: 226 days. Signalled deals: 9. Round capital: $834.2m. Company capital: $1.61bn.
Index Ventures
October coverage: 57%. November coverage: 0%. December coverage: 100%. Rolling coverage: 52%. Lead time: 153 days. Signalled deals: 9. Round capital: $584.4m. Company capital: $1.11bn.
Bain Capital Ventures
October coverage: 50%. November coverage: 0%. December coverage: 50%. Rolling coverage: 33%. Lead time: coverage only. Signalled deals: coverage only. Round capital: coverage only. Company capital: coverage only.
BMW i Ventures
October coverage: 50%. November coverage: 100%. December coverage: 0%. Rolling coverage: 50%. Lead time: coverage only. Signalled deals: coverage only. Round capital: coverage only. Company capital: coverage only.
Funding stage breakdown
Early stage
Round size <= $5m. Deals: 77. Average lead time: 103 days. Average round investment: $2.9m. Average total raised: $5.8m.
Growth stage
$5m < round size <= $10m. Deals: 52. Average lead time: 139 days. Average round investment: $7.7m. Average total raised: $14.4m.
Expansion stage
$10m < round size <= $30m. Deals: 62. Average lead time: 132 days. Average round investment: $18.0m. Average total raised: $51.2m.
Late-stage and mega deals
Round size > $30m. Deals: 63. Average lead time: 165 days. Average round investment: $126.8m. Average total raised: $453.2m.
How to read the backtest
- Overall deal, capital and lead-time metrics refer to the 2023 historical backtest.
- Fund coverage uses the Q4 2023 coverage table, covering October, November and December 2023.
- The stage chart uses 254 deals with disclosed round-size bands; 11 additional signalled deals had undisclosed round sizes and are excluded from stage averages.
- Backtesting is useful for evaluating whether a signal process creates earlier review windows. It does not prove future investment outcomes.